By Monetary Elite 
Hey there, bargain hunter.
Let me tell you what just happened, because it’s genuinely one of the most unusual stories in market history.
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026. Ticker: SPCX. The IPO priced at $135 a share, opened at $150, and by June 16 had touched $225.64 intraday. That’s a 67% run in four trading days. Then it gave back a big chunk of those gains. As of July 2, SPCX closed at about $157.7, sitting roughly 30% below its all-time high and about 17% above its IPO price.
So. Was that peak the top? Or a speed bump?
That’s the whole question. And the answer depends entirely on which of SpaceX’s three businesses you think you’re actually buying.
Three Engines, One Stock
The way to think about SPCX is as three companies duct-taped together — and only one of them is currently making real money.
- Connectivity (Starlink): The cash engine. Starlink generated $11.39 billion in revenue in 2025, up roughly 50% from $7.60 billion in 2024, representing about 61% of total company revenue. As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX reported approximately 10.3 million Starlink customers. Public disclosures also indicate Starlink surpassed 12 million active customers in early June 2026. Recent price changes for some Starlink plans were reported in mid-May 2026, but the precise global impact and magnitude varies by market. This is a healthy, maturing business — and per SpaceX’s S-1, it’s the only segment producing meaningful operating income.
- Space (launches): The legacy engine. SpaceX’s Space segment generated about $4.09 billion in 2025 revenue. SpaceX conducted 165 Falcon 9 orbital launches in 2025, and company disclosures indicate only 43 of those were for external customers, with the rest largely supporting internal Starlink deployment. This segment is real but slower-growing than most investors assume.
- AI (xAI): The optionality engine. In February 2026, SpaceX acquired xAI in an all-stock deal. xAI includes the Grok large language model and X (the social platform formerly known as Twitter). Separately, Anthropic agreed to pay xAI $1.25 billion per month for compute through May 2029, a deal that could exceed $40 billion in revenue over its term. Details such as termination rights and specific supercomputer-asset ownership/structure are not consistently reported in primary filings, so treat the fine print cautiously.
Total 2025 revenue: approximately $18.67 billion. Adjusted EBITDA: $6.58 billion. GAAP net loss: approximately $4.94 billion, driven largely by losses and spending in the AI segment.
The Valuation Problem
At $157 per share, SpaceX carries a market cap of roughly $2.08 trillion. That’s not cheap on any conventional metric. At the IPO price of $135, the company was valued at roughly $1.77 trillion — about 95 times trailing 2025 revenue.
Slight tangent, but it matters: the only publicly traded U.S. orbital launch company for comparison is Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab’s 2025 revenue was about $602 million, and its market cap in mid-2026 has been roughly in the $60+ billion range (it has moved materially around that level). SpaceX is in a different universe of scale — but the broader point holds: public market “space” multiples can get weird fast.
The more honest comparison is Starlink specifically. Starlink is a profitable internet service provider with global distribution. If you value Starlink alone as a high-growth subscription business at 20 to 25 times revenue — which is reasonable for the growth rate — you get somewhere between $228 billion and $285 billion in value just from that segment. That’s a fraction of the total market cap.
The rest of the valuation is a bet on Starship, AI, and Elon Musk.
The Lockup Clock Is Ticking
Here’s something most retail investors aren’t paying attention to: SpaceX’s IPO documentation includes lockup restrictions for insiders, but the exact unlock schedule (including any staggered tranches tied to specific events like the first earnings report) varies by holder and agreement and shouldn’t be assumed from headlines alone. What is clear is that lockup expirations can create meaningful technical overhangs for newly public stocks.
What Could Go Right
- Starlink subscriber growth re-accelerates internationally.
- Starship achieves commercial operations, opening an entirely new addressable market.
- xAI scales and the Grok platform gains enterprise traction beyond the Anthropic compute deal.
- SpaceX gets fast-tracked into major indexes and index funds are forced buyers.
What Could Go Wrong
- The $1.25 billion monthly Anthropic compute deal is huge — and any changes to its terms, volume, or duration would matter.
- Elon Musk’s attention is spread across Tesla, X, and SpaceX. Key-man risk is real and hard to quantify.
- AI losses are large and could accelerate.
- Lockup expirations and insider selling could pressure the stock in the months following the IPO.
The Cheap Investor Take
At $157, this is not a value stock. It’s a speculation on three different futures simultaneously, wrapped in genuine business quality from Starlink. The next earnings report will be a key near-term data point. If Starlink customer metrics and unit economics hold up, the story stays intact. If the AI losses widen faster than expected, the multiple will compress quickly.
The investors who chased the first-week rally at $200-plus already know how that story went. The question now is whether $157 represents a more rational entry — or just a slower burn to a lower number. That answer will start coming into focus over the next several weeks.